The Influence of Meteorological Factors on The Incidence of Human Brucellosis in Baotou City in Inner Mongolia

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to explore the meteorological factors associated with the incidence of brucellosis. The monthly incidence data of brucellosis and monthly average meteorological data in Baotou City of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were collected, and the DLNM model was used to explore the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence trend of brucellosis. The results of this study showed that from 2011 to 2020, a total of 7001 human brucellosis cases were reported in Baotou City. There was an obvious incidence peak from March to June each year. The seasonal fluctuation of human brucellosis transmission is significantly affected by temperature, wind speed, sunshine duration and relative humidity. 1) When the time lag was 0, RR (relative risk of brucellosis) value was above 1.00 no matter how the temperature changed, and had obvious short-term effect. 2) With the increase of wind speed, RR value increased significantly. 3) With the increase of monthly sunshine duration, RR increased first and then decreased. With the increase of lag time, the RR value showed a continuous upward trend. 4) With the increase of average relative humidity, the RR value showed a continuous downward trend. The lowest RR was 0.77 (95%CI, 0.52-1.15) when the average relative humidity was 36% and the lag was 6 months. Average temperature, wind speed, sunshine duration and relative humidity had important effects on the prevalence of brucellosis.