THAI BAHT FLUCTUATIONS AND CHINESE ENROLMENTS IN THAI HIGHER EDUCATION: AN ASSOCIATION ANALYSIS OVER TIME

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which Thai baht (THB) exchange‑rate fluctuations are associated with variations in the number of Chinese students enrolled in Thai higher education institutions over time. Building upon the thesis’s human capital and push–pull frameworks, this study outlines a robust time‑series association model linking currency volatility to international education flows. The Thai baht’s movements directly influence affordability for Chinese families, whose study‑abroad decisions are sensitive to perceived and real cost fluctuations. A transparent empirical strategy employing log‑transformation, distributed‑lag structures, and stationarity diagnostics allows for lagged responses across application and enrolment cycles. The study adheres strictly to existing data boundaries while presenting an actionable framework for academic institutions and policymakers to anticipate the impact of currency volatility on student recruitment. Policy recommendations highlight timing flexibility in scholarships, currency‑risk communication, and exchange‑stabilization initiatives to sustain Thailand’s competitiveness as an international education hub.